Recently, the State Chairman of the Lagos chapter of Peoples Democratic Party, Tunji Shelle boasted that his party will soon reclaim the governorship election they lost. Not many people belive him. It is doubtful if this will happen. In the last sixteen years, the PDP has not won any governorship election in Lagos.
Here are 10 top reasons why the party may never produce a governor in Lagos:
1.The Bode George Factor: There is something about the personality of the former South West National Leader of the People’s Democratic that puts Lagosians off. There is every reason to believe that the People’s Democratic Party has been failing in Lagos because of politicians like Bode George who Lagosians believe allegedly corrupt. Even in his party, he has been accused by members as a major reason for the party’s serial poor performance in Lagos.
2.Political History of Lagos: Lagos has never been ruled by ruled by any party other than the opposition party. Since the First Republic, the Southern Region which consists of Lagos and other South West States have always been controlled by the Progressives. It doesn’t look that the arrangement will change soon In 2003, when the former President Olusegun Obasanjo was president, his attempt to wrest Lagos out of the firm grip of the then governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu failed.
3.Lagos is predominantly Yoruba State: Lagos is predominantly a Yoruba State. In the political history of Nigeria, the Yorubas, have always played opposition politics. Thus Lagos has been staging ground for dissent and opposition to Federal government.
4.The Tinubu Factor: The emergence of the former governor of Lagos, Bola Tinubu who has emerged since the return of democracy in 1999 to become the face of opposition politics has been a thorn in the flesh of the People’s Democratic Party. In 2015 elections, he led a coalition of opposition parties which formed the All Progressives Congress to make a clean sweep of the election. Dismantling his formidable political stru structure the South West will not be easy. Even Obasanjo could not succeed in Lagos in 2003 elections.
5. PDP Antecedent: The Peoples Democratic Party does not have a winning antecedent in Lagos—not in the last sixteen years and not anytime in the near future.
6.Crisis In Lagos PDP: The PDP in Lagos is ridden by conflicts. The members are always fighting internal battles for control. This has seriously eroded their credibility. There are too many leaders with personal ego who want to exert their influence on other members. This has create several factions with some members decamping from the party.
7.The Obasanjo Factor: Lagosians still harbor sad memories of the Obasanjo years when he refused to give Lagos their local government allocations because of his beef with Tinubu creation of Local government areas. Then, the Peoples Democratic Party led by Obasnajo was seen as an occupation force.
8.Fashola’s Performance: The Second Executive Governor of Lagos, Babatunde Raji Fashola is seen as an epitome of performance due to the infrastructural development he put in place in Lagos.
9.The Obafemi Awolowo Factor: The revered leader of the Yoruba race Obafemi Awolowo is still a great factor in South West politics. The Yoruba elite consider S Lagos as a predominantly a progressive state. The political image of Awolowo still looms large in the South West of which Lagos is the political capital.
10.Lagos Voters Factor: When Lagosians vote, they vote for performance. The People’s Democratic Party has a reputation of no-performance at the federal and in the states they have governed in the sixteen years of democracy. Lagosians have chosen to remain in the opposition because of their track record as compared to the PDP.